Another soggy weather day Monday: Rain, clouds, and chilly temps
Yuck. Just yuck. For the second Sunday in a row, New Jersey was plagued by persistent soaking rain pretty much all day. It was miserably wet, cloudy, and cool — and unfortunately, there isn't much improvement to talk about for this back-to-work and back-to-school Monday.
As of this writing early Monday morning, temperatures across NJ range from a chilly 35 in far North Jersey to a cool 48 in South Jersey. Definitively below-normal, definitely uncomfortable, and certainly jacket weather. (We're not worried about the frost potential here because the ground is wet — that water will act as an insulator, preventing ice crystals from forming.)
Indeed, Monday will be another soggy day. No severe weather. Low thunderstorm potential. Just rain.
Forecast guidance suggests this slow-moving storm system will deliver scattered pockets of rain throughout the morning hours. Then, the most widespread and heaviest rain of the day arrives Monday afternoon. Another inch of rain seems like a good bet — that's on top of the 0.75" to 1.5" from Sunday. It will be breezy and cloudy and quite cool, with highs only in the lower 50s — almost 20 degrees below-normal for mid-May.
In addition to the wet weather, we're watching the surf during Monday morning's high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been posted for the entire Jersey Shore until 8 a.m. An extra 1 to 2 feet of water could cause minor flooding of tidal waterways. 6 to 10 foot ocean waves will continue to batter the beach.
Rain will largely taper off Monday evening, although fog and drizzle are still possible (if not likely) overnight. Low temperatures will again dip into the lower to mid 40s across most of the state. And once again, 30s are possible to the northwest.
On the backside of this storm system Tuesday, we'll still see a few showers and sprinkles throughout the day — but you will notice improvements. Skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast. And temperatures will still end up well below-normal, struggling to reach 60 degrees.
We'll finally see the sun again on Wednesday! That, combined with drier air and drier weather, will allow high temps to reach the mid to upper 60s. Much better!
A weak shortwave will push some showers through the Garden State from Wednesday night to early Thursday morning. No big deal, just a quick burst of raindrops.
After 8 a.m. Thursday, we'll flip back to pleasant weather. I'll call the day partly sunny, with seasonable high temperatures around 70 degrees.
The warming trend continues Friday, although yet another storm system will keep our atmosphere unsettled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast — not a washout. High temperatures should pop into the mid 70s, our first time firmly above normal in about a week.
I'm hesitant to get too excited, but I really like what I see for next weekend. (The last weekend before the Memorial Day Weekend, by the way.) Both the GFS and Euro models are painting partly to mostly sunny skies and thermometers in the mid to upper 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. That would be wonderful! Although we'll see how a Sunday night rain chance continues to develop — that could ultimately slide earlier and impact part of your weekend.