Wednesday NJ weather: Sunny, breezy, and cool
As promised, an intense squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms rolled through the state Tuesday afternoon. Top wind gust was 76 mph at Sea Girt, with tons of downed trees (especially along the Jersey Shore). Penny size hail fell in a few spots. And there were reports of tornadoes in the Manasquan-Wall and Toms River-Seaside areas. But there's no confirmation whether or not that was ground-level rotation from those storm cells.
Some have declared the Toms River event a gustnado, a quick spin-up among a broader area of straight-line winds. That description works for me — although without confirmation, this would not count toward New Jersey's annual tornado statistics.
Needless to say, Wednesday's weather is going to be much calmer than Tuesday's. For the third time in a week, we're facing cold, frosty temperatures on this Wednesday morning. Thermometers are mainly in the 30s. And when the wind blows, the wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) dips into the 20s.
It will be a bright, sunny day. And breezy, with a westerly wind between 10 and 20 mph. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, topping out in the lower 50s Wednesday afternoon — that is about 10 degrees below normal for late April.
The wind will become calm Wednesday evening, and clouds will roll in eventually (after Midnight). We will once again face the threat for a frost or a freeze, with overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Our next storm system will arrive on Thursday. Thursday morning will bring clouds and some showers, bubbling up from the southwest. Steadier rain looks to push in starting Thursday mid-afternoon, spreading across the entire state through Thursday evening. Because of the clouds and raindrops, high temperatures on Thursday will be limited to the 50s. (Lower 50s north, upper 50s south.)
We'll get soaked through at least Friday morning. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder toward the tail-end of this thing. Over an inch of rain seems likely across the state, with upwards of 2 inches where it pours the hardest (NJ Turnpike corridor?)
There are two schools of thought amongst forecast models about the rain end time. Our long-range models, the GFS and Euro, keep raindrops around through the afternoon hours. I'm still favoring the optimistic NAM, which cuts off the rain Friday morning. That would allow for breaks of sun Friday afternoon, pushing high temps into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The weekend forecast is still a challenge, as yet another storm system will deliver yet another batch of rain to New Jersey. As of now, Saturday looks mainly dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a high temperature near 60. However, skies will darken and dampen starting around Saturday late afternoon, as rain returns.
That storm system will depart Sunday morning, but stall just off the coast. That would keep our weather showery, cloudy, and cool for at least Sunday. And possibly Monday too. Blah. Just blah.
Next sunny, mild day? Tuesday.