The Bottom Line

For the next week or so, we’ll be stuck in an “unsettled” weather pattern. That means we have to talk about clouds and generally cooler temperatures and several waves of rain.

So there will be a noticeable change in the air across New Jersey, compared to the last four consecutive days of sunshine and 60s/70s. There will be approximately three rounds of rain over the weekend. But I still maintain there are no washout or terrible weather days in the forecast.

Friday

Clouds have returned to the skies of New Jersey. That alone will have an impact on temperatures Friday. We’re starting the day in the 40s. And highs will reach the upper 50s to around 60 - very close to normal for the 9th of April.

Additionally, there is a batch of rain over southern Pennsylvania and Maryland, tracking toward New Jersey. However, all models point to that rainfall fizzling quite a bit before reaching the Garden State. So, while we are still expecting raindrops along the way Friday, they should be limited to sprinkles and light showers.

We’ll keep the shower chance alive Friday night. And temperatures will only fall about 10 degrees overnight, into the upper 40s by Saturday morning.

Saturday

As temperatures meet dew points, and we fall under the influence of marine air, Saturday will probably start with some fog and patchy drizzle around the state. While the rest of the day will remain quite cloudy, the afternoon hours do look dry. Even though we’ll still be on the cool side of the jet stream, I’m optimistic that high temperatures to push into the lower 60s.

Again, pockets of dry, relatively pleasant weather to be found.

Sunday

A tricky weather day, both because of the forecast and expected weather conditions.

As a warm front lifts through New Jersey Sunday morning (4 a.m. to 11 a.m.), a batch of steady to heavy rain will drive through the state. Rainfall totals will probably end up on the order of a half-inch.

Then we’ll see breaks of sun, especially the farther south and west you go. Substantial sun will cause temperatures to spike into the 70s for inland central and southern New Jersey. NW NJ and the Jersey Shore will be closer to 60 - a pretty significant gradient.

A cold frontal boundary will eventually spark another round of scattered thunderstorms seems likely late-day Sunday (4 p.m. to 10 p.m.) Given the warmth, relative humidity, and instability in the atmosphere, I am concerned those storms become strong or severe. That means downpours and gusty winds are a possibility.

So keep an eye on the sky Sunday, and keep outdoor plans flexible.

Monday & Beyond

The temperature forecast for next week will be totally dependent on 1.) the wind direction (on-shore vs. land breeze) and 2.) the amount of sunshine we see.

Monday looks like the dreariest, most uncomfortable of the bunch. Highs only reach about 50 to 55 degrees, with clouds and maybe a shower.

Tuesday and Wednesday look better, as thermometer pop to around 60. Still mostly cloudy, and still a shower chance.

Our next widespread rain threat is forecast to arrive sometime Thursday. (Some models have been spitting out snowfall in NW NJ from this one - not buying that hype!) Hopefully that storm system will get our atmosphere unstuck, and we’ll see the return of “settled” weather - i.e. sunshine, dry days, and mild temperatures.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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