Sunshine vs. showers: Somewhat unsettled weather continues for NJ
So the forecast for this first weekend of August is not perfect. But I think it's fair to call it mostly dry. And you should find some pleasant beach, pool, and backyard weather along the way.
We're starting out this Friday morning with fairly comfortable temperatures, generally in the mid to upper 60s across the state. Thermometers will max out in the lower to mid 80s Friday afternoon, right around or just below normal for early August.
With a frontal boundary still to stalled our south and high pressure parked to the north, New Jersey will be right on the edge of sunshine and clouds Friday. The farther north you are, the sunnier it will be. The farther south you are, the cloudier it will be. In the middle — let's say Mercer-Burlington-Monmouth-Ocean counties — you'll probably see periods of both sunshine and cloud cover throughout the day.
There is an isolated shower threat for Friday again too. Mainly in South Jersey in the morning, mainly in NW NJ in the afternoon. Most of the state will stay dry again — and just like Thursday, if you avoid the raindrops, it will be a pretty nice day.
Finally, if you do venture to the beach, a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues along the Jersey Shore. Even though wave heights will be tame, increasing long-period swell is what increases the threat level.
Friday night looks partly cloudy, with patchy fog and a shower chance. We should miss out on the mugginess, with low temps once again in the upper 60s.
Some models paint a pretty wet scene for New Jersey on Saturday. I'm thinking a bit more optimistically — it should not be a total washout of a day. As I mentioned already, I am even willing to call it a mostly dry day. But there will be spotty to scattered rain showers around the state. Maybe even a thunderstorm at some point. While the morning hours look to be the most unsettled, I don't want to nail down the timing too firmly.
At the same time, I am confident we will see some breaks of sun and seasonable temperatures. Look for highs once again in the lower to mid 80s.
Sunday promises to be the nicer, drier day of the weekend overall. We'll probably stay dry, although I would not rule out an isolated shower or two (very localized). Skies will be partly sunny, on average. And temperatures will get pretty hot, generally topping out between 85 and 90 degrees.
We'll get a taste of cooler, drier air on Monday, as high temperatures decrease to the lower 80s. (70s at the Shore.) Despite the dry-down, I'm still seeing lots of cloud cover to kick off the new workweek.
My confidence is low regarding the forecast for the middle of next week. I'm generally seeing temperatures in the 80s. There will be some rain, the heaviest of which is currently modeled to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. But that's subject to change — let's see how things continue to develop.