Squeezing out one more mild day before rain returns to NJ
Wow. Just wow! It doesn't get more spectacular than this weekend. Sunshine poured from the sky, as temperatures soared into the 50s on Sunday. We did not hit 60 degrees, but Sicklerville (Camden Co.) and Toms River (Ocean Co.) came very close at 59. More typical of early April than late February.
Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. While we will squeeze out one more mild day Monday, our next storm system will bring a return to rain soon enough. And that will kickstart a slow transition to much colder weather by the end of the week. (Spoiler alert: Still no snow in the forecast.)
There is definitely a chill in the air on this Monday morning, another side effect of our bone-dry air mass. Temperatures range from the 20s across the vast majority of interior New Jersey, to around 40 along the Jersey Shore.
Monday will start with more bright sunshine, before clouds start to increase after about 10 a.m. High temperatures will still spike into the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday afternoon.
If Atlantic City International Airport hits 60+ degrees, it would be the 6th such day in February 2020. Not a record though — ACY had a total of 10 60-degree days in 2017, 9 in 2016, and 8 in 2018. #FebruaryIsTheNewApril?
As our next storm system draws closer from the southwest, a rain shower may creep into the Garden State around late Monday afternoon (4-5 p.m.) Rain showers become even more likely Monday night. Low temperatures will fall into the lower 40s — well above freezing, so yet again nothing wintry here.
Scattered rain continues for most of Tuesday, from morning through early evening. Not a total washout, but the day is looking damp and grey. It will be cooler too, but not an arctic blast — the combination of raindrops, clouds, and an easterly breeze will limit temperatures to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
The daytime hours on Wednesday will probably remain dry, although skies stay cloudy. Temps hold steady in the upper 40s to around 50.
One more round of rain is expected Wednesday night. Forecast models are painting a quick round of fairly heavy rain, exclusively falling during the overnight hours.
Amongst leftover puddles, skies will clear Thursday morning. We'll also feel a gusty westerly wind, possibly blowing over 35 mph at times. That wind will eventually carry in colder air. But not really on Thursday — I'm thinking we'll still eke out mid 40s.
And then cold weather takes over as we approach the end of February and the beginning of March. Our latest forecast shows Friday high temperatures near 40, Saturday highs potentially in the mid 30s, and Sunday's temps in the lower 30s. It looks like March is going to roar in like a cold lion this year!
I am the first to admit that long-range weather models are worth next to nothing. (You may as well flip a coin or forecast "average" for far better accuracy overall.) But they do offer some signals to potential weather trends on the horizon. In this case, there are hints at some stormier weather through the first week of March. (Heck, the GFS shows a significant snowstorm on March 7-8.) But again, that indicates nothing specific. It just confirms what I've been saying for weeks — winter ain't over until it's over!