Pouring rain for the first half of Thursday, turning drier later
Thursday is the 164th day of 2019. And it's New Jersey's 72nd day with measurable precipitation (at Newark Airport). Yup, it's been a persistently wet year so far, continuing a pattern that started last summer. But Thursday won't be a washout — while the morning will be quite wet, the afternoon should get considerably drier.
As of this writing (6 a.m.), it's raining heavily along the western edge of New Jersey. Meanwhile, spotty showers are impacting the eastern half of the state. The latest short-term models show the steady, heavy rain will progress to the entire state by about 8 a.m. In other words, if you haven't been rained on yet — just wait an hour or two.
Ponding and flooding issues are possible from Thursday morning's heavy rain bands. Then, the rainfall will taper considerably, to scattered showers Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, New Jersey will be mostly dry, with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms out there. We'll have to keep that shower/storm chance in the forecast through about Midnight Thursday night.
Even when it's not raining, skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast. Temperatures will end up on the cool side, with highs ranging from near 60 in North Jersey to the lower 60s in South Jersey.
Not that it's a great beach day in the slightest, but the coastal storm component is going to significantly churn up the Atlantic Ocean. A high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf has been posted for today.
Our weather changes for the better on Friday. By the time you wake up Friday morning, it will be dry and mostly sunny across New Jersey. The day will be windy too, with westerly gusts up to about 30 mph. Expect pleasant high temperatures in the mid 70s.
Saturday looks more summerlike, as high temperatures push into the lower to mid 80s. Even the Jersey Shore will be nice and warm, thanks to a stiff land breeze. With partly sunny skies and dry weather, it will be a great start to the weekend.
Sunday will be even warmer, with temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees a good bet. The day will also turn unsettled, as skies become mostly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible starting Sunday afternoon.
And then next week is a hot mess. I'm seeing a daily rain chance. No washouts, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. Plus, with temperatures still hovering close to 90 degrees for the first half of the week, severe weather will be a possibility too.