NJ’s next front less than 24 hours away: Cold wind, snow showers
The Bottom Line
While Tuesday will be another uneventful weather day, we do have a cold front aiming for New Jersey for Wednesday morning. That will do three things to our weather: 1.) Kick up a gusty wind, 2.) Turn temperatures colder (temporarily), and 3.) Possible drive some snow showers through New Jersey.
The impending snowflakes and cooldown will be fairly unremarkable and brief. But there is another burst of even colder air on the horizon, next weekend.
Both morning lows and afternoon highs will be slightly cooler on Tuesday compared to Monday. But the difference is so slight, you might not even notice.
We're starting the day with clear skies and thermometers near the 30 degree mark. Most of the state is hovering right around or just below the freezing mark.
Daytime highs are forecast to reach about 40 to 45 degrees. At Newark Airport, it will be the 22nd day in a row of at-or-above-normal temperatures.
Aside from some flurries flying through North Jersey, dry weather will win the day. Clouds will start to increase from late afternoon through Tuesday evening.
WednesdayA cold front is the leading edge of a colder air mass. That difference in density causes lift in the atmosphere, which can lead to widespread precipitation.
The big question: Will Wednesday morning's cold front carry enough moisture to spark snow showers? Models have indeed trended toward a more favorable environment for isolated to widely scattered snow showers Wednesday morning. (Rain showers along the immediate coast.) Best timing would be between 5 a.m. and 11 a.m.
I believe there is an outside chance of reduced visibility and even a coating of snow accumulation in that window. Again, if there's enough moisture in the air. That's going to be difficult.
The rest of Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, windy, and cold. Top wind gusts will probably hit 30 mph. High temperatures will be limited to the upper 30s.
Wednesday night will be one of the coldest of the season so far (and that's not saying much). We'll likely bottom out in the lower 20s across most of the state, with teens in NW NJ.
Thursday & Friday
Flipping back to quiet weather, as thermometers make a full recovery. 40 to 45 degrees, a lighter wind, and partly sunny skies will make Thursday a decent mid-January day.
Friday looks good too, with more sunshine and dry weather. Highs will hold steady in the slightly-above-normal lower to mid 40s.
The Weekend & BeyondAnother cold front is scheduled to arrive early Saturday, leading to another cooldown for the weekend. This one will be a bit more prolonged and a bit more noticeable.
High temperatures on Saturday will only reach the lower to mid 30s, with northwesterly wind gusts on the order of 30 mph. Definitely blustery.
Sunday looks a little better, with a lighter breeze and temps in the mid 30s.
The surge of cold air will set the stage for potentially wintry weather from our next storm system. Both the GFS and Euro models have been holding steady on a storm system in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. As we've seen a few times this winter so far, a lot can happen in 6 to 7 days, including a complete fizzle. But for now, guidance is suggesting a wintry mix to rain solution, which could make some messy travel early next week. Just something to watch for now.