NJ’s big warmup begins Thursday, but it won’t last long
I've been talking about it all week. We've been thinking about it all winter. Warmer temperatures are here! Unfortunately, they're not really here to stay, as a cooldown will take over by the end of the weekend.
Even though there's a bit of coolness in the air, Thursday morning is already starting off about 15 degrees warmer (in the 40s) than Wednesday morning's near-record lows (in the 20s). I had a few raindrops hit my windshield on the way to work, and you may encounter the same with some spotty drizzle across the Garden State.
A batch of scattered showers will traverse the Garden State through Thursday midday. Best chance for a period of wet weather will be in northern and central NJ.
In between and after the raindrops, skies should remain mostly cloudy. A gusty southwest wind up to 30 mph will draw warmer air closer to New Jersey too.
Most of the state will reach the 65 to 70 degree range Thursday afternoon. As I've discussed all week, the big exception will be the Jersey Shore. Ocean and bay temperatures are currently a chilly 45 degrees, which will have a significant impact on the air temperature (especially on our barrier islands). For Thursday, coastal communities will be lucky to make it to 60 degrees.
Thursday night won't be that cool, as lows only dip into the 50s for most. You can thank partial cloudiness and marginal humidity for the moderation in temperatures.
Models are still painting an isolated shower over New Jersey for early Friday morning. Aside from that, I'm seeing a truly fantastic Friday — mostly sunny, breezy, and warm. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s for most. A few scattered 80s are possible too. Again, along the coast, we'll be stuck in the 60s at best.
Saturday will be similarly warm, mostly in the 70s again. Skies will transition from morning sunshine to afternoon clouds. And again I have to include a shower chance Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday, New Jersey will be under the influence of a backdoor cold front, sinking down from the northeast. That means we'll turn cloudier and cooler, especially in North Jersey and alone the Jersey Shore. In addition, widely scattered showers are likely throughout Sunday too. Temperatures are really difficult to pinpoint in a backdoor cold front situation — it's very possible that North Jersey gets stuck near 50 degrees, while South Jersey still tops 70. I've settled on a middle-ground "60s" in my on-air forecast, but just know it's a highly uncertain and volatile temperature forecast for the end of the weekend.
A "regular" cold front will approach New Jersey early Monday morning, and it looks quite strong. That front will probably deliver a period of heavy rain and thunderstorms Monday morning, before a brisk wind forces temperatures downward Monday afternoon.
So yes, it'll be back to the chilly side of the world by Tuesday, with highs back down to the 40s and 50s. Hopefully things will moderate a bit by the end of next week. But unfortunate, I do not see another surge of truly warm weather in the long-range forecast. Sad face.