NJ weather: Hints of ‘the roller coaster of autumn’ setting up
The past week has been an intense thrill ride, as we progressed from stressing about Dorian, to dealing with Dorian, to enjoying a wonderful weekend of weather. It looks like generally pleasant will continue to start the first full week of school. And we'll see a wide variety of weather conditions for the rest of the week.
Autumn is always our "roller coaster" season — full of ups, downs, and active weather. The transition from summertime heat to wintertime chill doesn't happen overnight. We'll often get a couple of warm days, followed by a couple of cool days, with scattered rain and some wind throughout. Even though autumn doesn't officially "fall" until September 23 (two weeks from today), it's not unusual for this pattern to already start to set up. Of course, the hills and valleys tend to get progressively more intense as the season rolls along.
I actually caught a few sprinkles on my way to work early on this Monday morning. Otherwise, we're starting off just fine with AM temps in the 60s and partly sunny skies. High temperatures should range from 70 degrees (North Jersey) to 80 degrees (South Jersey) for Monday afternoon. That is a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
The only potential hiccup in a generally pleasant day will be a few isolated showers or even a thunderstorm. Best chance of raindrops will be between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. in central and southern New Jersey. I think it's fair to say most of the state will remain dry Monday — you can probably make do without the umbrella.
The rest of Monday night will be mild, with some clouds and some fog. Low temps fall generally into the 60s again, with some 50s on the hilltops in NW NJ.
On Tuesday, thanks to a southeasterly (on-shore) breeze and increasing humidity, I'm going to call the day mostly cloudy. Models have shown some hints of raindrops, but I'm opting for a dry forecast for now.
A big warmup arrives on Wednesday, with a noticeable bump in humidity too. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s across most of New Jersey. (90 is not out of the question.) That's going to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
It will be a breezy day, with a mix of sun and clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday evening.
Thursday will be steamy too, with highs back into the 80s. A cold front will sweep a round of widespread rain (potentially heavy) through the state sometime late-day. (We'll nail down the timing of that rain chance — afternoon vs. evening vs. overnight — as it gets closer.)
And then temperatures crash on Friday, due to thick clouds and a brisk on-shore wind. We might be lucky to hit 70 degrees — oof, what a difference.
The early look at the weekend isn't perfect, given the chance of a stalled front and prolonged rain. But it's a pretty uncertain forecast — let's see how things evolve as the week goes forward.