NJ weather: Dry and pleasant Tuesday, not so much Wednesday
What a disgusting day Monday, eh? Over an inch of rain in spots, and temperatures mainly in the 40s. I couldn't help but think that if it were 5 to 10 degrees cooler, we could have had some solid snow accumulations. But 'twas just wet — the first of several rounds of rain this week.
On this Tuesday morning, we're waking up to temperatures around 40 degrees — a little chill in the air. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will reach the lower to mid 50s, close to normal for late March. The cool spot in the state will be the Jersey Shore, as air temperatures battle against the effects of chilly ocean/bay water (temps 45 to 49 degrees).
We'll alternate periods of sun and clouds throughout the day, with light winds and dry weather. Clouds will ultimately win, increasing significantly Tuesday night. We'll see low temperatures dip into the chilly upper 30s.
Wet weather returns to the Garden State on Wednesday as our next storm system drives in periods of rain for most of the day. So another wet day, similar to Monday. I have four important notes to add:
1.) Rainfall should overall be lighter compared to Wednesday, with most rainfall totals held to around a half-inch.
2.) South Jersey will be closest to the core of this storm system, which means they'll experience the heaviest rain.
3.) There could be a few snowflakes in far northern New Jersey, but no accumulation or travel impacts are expected.
4.) It's not a slam dunk forecast. The GFS model in particular shows a much drier solution than the NAM and Euro models.
So we're probably facing another wet, breezy, and cool day overall. Wednesday's high temperatures will once again be limited to the mid 40s, give or take.
On Thursday, we'll dry out again and break into sunshine by about midday. The second (and final) completely dry day of the week, high temperatures will end up in the lower to mid 50s. So Thursday will be very similar to Tuesday.
The forecast gets very complicated starting Friday, as a warm front partially lifts into New Jersey. The guidance consensus right now is to stall that front on top of NJ, keeping the warm air to the south (darn) and keeping our weather rather wet and unsettled (double darn).
I see a quick batch of rain sliding through New Jersey early Friday morning, followed by drier and mostly cloudy conditions Friday afternoon. While I had previously suggested widespread 60s on Friday, I've had to back away from that warm outlook. Our latest forecast calls for 50 to 55 degrees — not terrible, but not incredibly warm (especially since sunshine will be limited).
Saturday looks wet and cool again with highs near 50. Sunday should turn drier, brighter, and warmer, with highs approaching 60. (For the record, bright sunshine is wonderful right now, as it allows us to get outside for a few minutes in this time of social distancing, anxiety, and uncertainty.)
However, keep in mind a stalled front situation can be rather volatile. That means this forecast may change drastically as we get a clearer, more confident picture of the forecast. As always, stay tuned for daily updates on-air and online!