Another spectacular forecast for NJ – for two more days, that is
I suspect Wednesday will go down as one of the top days of the entire summer, with high temperatures between 78 and 89 degrees, abundant sunshine, a light breeze and (most importantly) very low humidity. Thursday looks equally delightful and Friday looks good too, before our weather goes downhill for the long-run starting this weekend.
We're waking up to temperatures mostly in the 60s across New Jersey on this Thursday morning. A few spots have even fallen into the 50s. We are within a few degrees of record lows for this date — certainly a cool and refreshing start to the day!
High temperatures for Thursday afternoon will reach the lower to mid 80s, perhaps a few degrees cooler than Wednesday. A nice sea breeze will keep the Jersey Shore cooler, in the 70s. Skies will remain sunny, our weather will be dry, and humidity stays low for one more day.
The clear, comfortable weather continues for Thursday night. Most low temps will dip into the lower to mid 60s. Once again, we'll probably see a few 50s in the coolest spots.
Even though there will be a few changes to Friday's forecast, it still looks like a pleasant day overall. Humidity levels will tick upward slightly (dew points pop into the lower 60s) — but the change will hardly be noticeable. We'll see a mix of sun and clouds and one more dry day Friday. High temperatures in the upper 70s (along the coast) to lower 80s (inland).
And then things change. Bigtime. For the upcoming weekend, our forecast gets more unsettled — in other words, wet.
Things get more complicated for the weekend too. Saturday's forecast is wholly dependent on the precise track of a storm system sliding up the Atlantic seaboard. If the center of that area of low pressure stays off-shore, we'll see a few showers along the coast only, especially late-day Saturday. (That's the solution currently favored by the NAM, Euro, and yours truly.) However, if the storm system ends up 100 miles further west and/or moves faster, Saturday could turn into a total washout. (That's what the GFS model says — but that model has been performing poorly lately.)
This brand of low confidence, on-the-edge forecast is reminiscent of a winter storm/nor'easter forecast — but at least I don't have to worry about pinpointing temperatures and precipitation types and such. The bottom line here is that I have to put a "chance of rain" in the forecast for Saturday, but it's far from a sure bet at this time. At the very least, Saturday will be mostly cloudy and a bit on the cool side due to the overall marine influence (easterly, on-shore breeze), with highs only about 75 to 80 degrees.
Our risk for raindrops actually looks higher for Sunday, as a trough approaching from the west will likely spark scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Note: scattered means it is not expected to be a washout, not everyone in NJ will get wet. As winds turn southerly, high temperatures should bounce back to the mid 80s by Sunday afternoon.
And then the unsettled weather rolls on. A large area of high pressure over the northern Atlantic Ocean will "block" Sunday's storm system from exiting the east coast. It's hard to believe (and hard to swallow), but models overwhelmingly suggest a daily rain chance from Sunday (7/22) all the way through early August. Yes, I said it — a week or two of unsettled weather. I don't want to pinpoint timing of location of those rounds of rain just yet — that may become a day-to-day challenge. At least it will be very warm (and humid), and there will be glimmers of sunshine along the way.
Enjoy the spectacular summer weather Thursday and Friday, while it lasts!