Remnants of Florence bring scattered storms, heavy rain to NJ
Over the last week, we've watched Hurricane Florence make landfall in North Carolina, Tropical Storm Florence pour feet of rain, and Tropical Depression Florence hang a big "U-turn" over the Ohio Valley. Now, the remnants of Florence — technically "Post-Tropical Depression Florence" — will swing through the Northeast. And we're already seeing the soggy, stormy impacts here in New Jersey.
Tuesday is not going to be a washout, but it certainly looks like a wet day. Scattered thunderstorms will work through the state throughout the day, but there will be breaks in the rain along the way. Watch out for pockets of moderate to heavy rain during the Tuesday morning commute. And then the heaviest rain and strongest storms will probably arrive during the afternoon to evening hours (say, 2 p.m. to 8 p.m).
Most rain gauges across New Jersey will see a half-inch to an inch of "healthy" rainfall by Tuesday's end. Where it really pours, up to 2 inches of rain will be possible. And that's where localized — not widespread — flash flooding may become an issue. That means there will be ponding on roadways, while streams and creeks run a bit high and fast.
I think it's also important to note that these remnants spawned several tornadoes in Virginia on Monday. In addition, we had some severe wind damage around Summit in Union County, New Jersey. So let's stay "weather aware" Tuesday, and be on the lookout for gusty winds and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.
In between raindrops Tuesday, it will be mostly cloudy and breezy (gusts to 25 mph). And that's it — as I've said for several days, the remnants of Florence will be a mere shadow of its former "major hurricane" self.
Rain will exit the Garden State Tuesday evening, and skies should clear pretty quickly over night. Winds will calm and humidity will drop too. All those factors will contribute to comfortable temps overnight, in the mid to upper 60s.
And then it's back to pleasant weather for the rest of the week!
Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. While the morning run of the high-resolution NAM model paints a sprinkle over New Jersey at some point Wednesday morning, I've opted for a dry forecast. High temperatures will be seasonable for the final days of summer, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Thursday gets even cooler, but I think it will feel like a pleasant taste of early fall. Partly sunny, light winds, and dry weather. Morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Afternoon highs between about 70 to 75 degrees.
As winds become southwesterly and a bit gustier on Friday, we'll warm up into the 80s again — a pleasant taste of summer! With mostly sunny skies, it will be another very nice day — as long as you don't mind occasional wind gusts over 20 mph.
A cold front is forecast to pass across New Jersey during the day Saturday, but forecast models have consistently painted a dry weather day. Sure, there will be clouds. And Sunday will be the cooler day of the weekend. But I'm thinking it will be a mostly dry weekend.
Our next substantial chance of rain is forecast for Monday.