Can Gov. Chris Christie make it to ‘Super Tuesday?’
Gov. Chris Christie isn't polling over 5 percent in the latest surveys from the four early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. One New Jersey political expert said the governor is probably going to have to win one of those states to survive and fight in the 12 "Super Tuesday" states on March 1.
The latest Monmouth University poll of GOP voters in Iowa showed Christie was getting just 1 percent support and it appears he is not building any organizational support in that state said Patrick Murray, the director of the poll.
"The early polls in New Hampshire suggest that he's not doing well there, but those polls were taken before he actually formally announced (his candidacy)," Murray said. "He's been spending a lot more time up in New Hampshire so we'll see in the next couple of weeks as more New Hampshire polls start coming out whether he's been able to get a bounce there because he certainly didn't get it in Iowa and he has gotten it nationally."
The governor formally launched his presidential campaign at his high school alma mater on June 30.
It is possible that four different candidates will emerge as the winner in each of the four early voting states and Christie's best bet is New Hampshire and a win there would propel him into "Super Tuesday" Murray explained.
"He needs to emerge from New Hampshire as the winner there and then start raising money by the bucket load in the weeks following in order to be able to compete in the next set of contests. The next poll coming out of New Hampshire will tell whether or not Chris Christie really got a bounce in the place that he's concentrated on," Murray said.
Christie's results from the latest polls in each of the four early voting states according to realpolitics.com:
· Iowa - 1 percent (Monmouth University, July 16-19)
· New Hampshire - 5 percent (CNN-WMUR, June 18-24)
· South Carolina - 5 percent (Morning Consult, May 31-June 8)
· Nevada - 4 percent (Gravis Marketing, March 27)
"It's make or break for him in New Hampshire. He has to do well in New Hampshire. Probably he has to win New Hampshire outright," Murray said.
The dates for the caucuses and primaries in the four early voting states are:
· Feb. 1 - Iowa caucus
· Feb. 9 - New Hampshire primary
· Feb. 20 - South Carolina primary
· Feb. 23 - Nevada caucus
According to Murray, the only caucuses that really matter are those in Iowa and Nevada because the nomination process has always been about momentum and if a candidate can do well in those states momentum will be built and he or she will be viewed as a viable candidate.