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Active weather pattern continues for NJ this weekend

Several rounds of rain, thick clouds, and below-normal temperatures will keep the Garden State’s weather unsettled for the foreseeable future.

Sometimes Wet Sometimes Dry 20170421

I can’t wait for this weather pattern to end. Unfortunately, that’s going to take a while. Not only will it remain grey and occasionally wet, but also unpredictable. While the exact timing, intensity, and spread of rain is extremely difficult to pinpoint, it’s clear that the “mostly yucky” forecast will continue for a while.

Friday

The weather radar is lighting up Friday morning, as a round of steady rain pushes through. The rainfall will be manageable, but the morning rush hour will certainly be wet for the northern half of the state. (With some showers possible in South Jersey too, of course.)

We should get a lull in the rainfall action through the middle of the day, although abundant clouds and even some fog will hang around North Jersey and along the coast. Because of the clouds and fog, I expect a huge range of high temperatures. Temps will be strictly limited in North Jersey (possibly down to I-195) and along the Jersey Shore, where we’ll top out near 60 degrees. Meanwhile, in southwestern New Jersey, we’ll make a run for 80. Yeah, big difference! Should make for a colorful, dynamic temperature map Friday afternoon.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will probably fire up from late afternoon through the evening. Not guaranteed, but given the warmth in South Jersey, some of these storms could end up on the strong side.

Saturday

Usually a 24-48 hour forecast is pretty straightforward, even in an active setup. Not this time! The NAM model shows a round of showers pushing through New Jersey between about 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. Saturday. But the GFS? Dry as a bone. I think a chance for showers is warranted, but I highly doubt the day will turn into a washout. (Edit: the newest run of the NAM, as of 06Z, is dry — that gives even more hope for an OK start to the weekend!)

Saturday will be mostly cloudy and breezy, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. The gradient of temperatures statewide will be much more even, as even the coast will see temperatures close to 60 degrees on Saturday.

Sunday

Another round of rain is forecast for Sunday, but the extra trajectory of the steadiest raindrops is very much in flux. Southern New Jersey is most likely to get wet. For the northern part of the state, it might be a decent day.

Well, decent but cool. High temperatures on Sunday will end up in the upper 50s to lower 60s. That’s below normal for late April.

Monday and Beyond

In Thursday’s weather blog post, I gave an optimistically (and enthusiastically) dry forecast for next week.

Well. Things have changed.

A switch to an on-shore flow looks to keep unsettled weather on top of New Jersey for part of next week. If not all of next week — I could see at least a shower chance for the Garden State through next Thursday. That’s if the forecast doesn’t make a complete “180” yet again. Yuck.

Have a great weekend! Think dry thoughts!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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